急激に悪化するカンボジアの民主主義政治状況に関するヒアリングと質疑、そして来年のミャンマー選挙について意見交換が行われました。
現在、東南アジア各国の政治状況は極めて不安定で、NGOや活動家への弾圧も激しく、今回は活動家の安全を確保する意味で、「チャタムハウス・ルール」（会議の参加者名・写真・発言内容を公表しない）に基づいてパネルディスカッションを行いました。
冒頭の鳩山代表のスピーチ（英語）および首藤所長の問題意識のみ掲載します。
Welcome Speech for the Panel Discussion between Cambodia activists, ANFREL and KYOWA Research Center on August 1, 2024 Tokyo
Yukio Hatoyama
Chairman, KYOWA Research Center
Former Prime Minister of Japan
Hello everyone. I would welcome all participants in this hot summer from Karuizawa, where I stay and will participate in the discussion via ZOOM.
My name is Yukio Hatoyama. In 2009, I was the first prime minister of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), which replaced the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) which had been in office for a long time. LDP conducted unfair politics due to the collusion of politics and bureaucracy, which caused the anger of many people, led to a change of government.
Former members of the House of Representatives, Nobuhiko Suto and Naoto Sakaguchi, both of whom participated in today's meeting, overthrew the LDP government together with me. Both are politicians and valuable civic activists who have visited conflict zones and devoted themselves to peacebuilding. They were very much looking forward to having a discussion with the member of ANFREL and colleagues.
I highly appreciate the efforts of ANFREL for their hard work in Election Observation, Capacity Building, and Campaigns & Advocacy to establish democracy in Asia.
I do believe that in order to lead the world to peace, it is essential to spread the spirit of fraternity throughout the world. Fraternity is by no means a new idea, but in modern times, the importance of the idea has been recognized by Count Coudenhove-Kalergi, who advocated pan-Europeanism amid concerns about the spread of totalitarianism. After World War II, his ideas gave rise to the European Coal and Steel Community, which became the current EU after many twists and turns.
I am aware that there are various criticisms of the EU, but at least it should be appreciated that there will never be another war within the EU. In other words, the EU is a non-war community. I am calling for the establishment of an East Asian Community in order to make East Asia a non-war community.
I interpret fraternity as a spirit of respect for one's own dignity and freedom, as well as respect for the dignity and freedom of others. To put it simply, fraternity is a spirit of mutual respect, mutual understanding, and mutual assistance. The West regards only countries with the same values as comrades, and views countries with different values as enemies or excludes them. It often provokes wars.
On the other hand, in the East, there is the idea of making harmony precious. Rather than quarreling with people with different values, we value harmony that respects and understands each other's different ideas. Therefore, I believe that if the Eastern idea of valuing harmony spreads more, the world will be led to more peace.
Unfortunately, the world is dominated by Western ideology, and there is a tendency to exclude countries with different values. For example, the G7 summit of developed countries used to be the G8 summit with Russia added, but it became the G7 summit in 2014 after Russia was excluded for annexing Crimea due to changes in the situation in Ukraine. I think that when Russia causes some problem, instead of excluding Russia, the developed countries should have put Russia in the group and discussed the issue.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was never forgivable, but Western countries continue to unilaterally criticize Russia and support Ukraine without confirming the true cause of why it happened. After all, it seems that Western countries are supporting Ukraine in order to weaken Russia, which has different values. From the perspective of Western countries, especially the United States, China is also a country with different values, so China is thought to be close to Russia.
But in reality, China is presenting a ceasefire proposal for the war in Ukraine from a more neutral standpoint. I believe that the most desirable way to bring the war to a ceasefire is for a country like China, which values harmony, to mediate and present a solution while listening to the opinions of both opposing sides. Originally, Japan, which is supposed to value the same harmony, should play a more role to be fulfilled, but unfortunately the Japan government is committed to following the United States, and therefore it is not able to exert its power to reach a ceasefire agreement because it views countries with different values as enemies.
As I mentioned earlier, I have long advocated for East Asia to become a community like the EU in Europe. Members of East Asian countries will come together and strive to resolve all issues, from the economy, trade, culture, the environment to security, through dialogue rather than force. I have heard that East Asian countries, especially Myanmar, Cambodia, and Bangladesh, do not necessarily have democracy firmly established.
For example, I heard that a general election was held in Cambodia last year, and a general election in Myanmar is scheduled to be held next year. I believe that elections that express the will of the people as a means of democracy are significant, even if the election is not perfect. Opponents of the government tend to advocate a boycott of the elections, but I don't think that's a good idea.
In the spirit of fraternity, the government is required to reach a compromise with each other. That means the government is required to incorporate the opinions of the opposition forces in order to hold the election. I heard that the Chinese government is trying to find a way to compromise by inviting both the Myanmar government and the opposition side. I believe that such efforts are needed now more than ever.
Essentially, the Japan should fulfill this role, but if the Japan government is unable to fulfill its role, it will be necessary for us to make up for it with the efforts of the private sector.
Finally, I would like to mention one anecdote. When I was Prime Minister, I was next to Prime Minister Hun Sen of Cambodia. At that time, Prime Minister Hun Sen asked me, "Do you enjoy being prime minister?" I remember that I replied, "It's not fun." Prime Minister Hun Sen had been prime minister for a long time, but it seemed to me that he had a look on his face that it was not fun at all. In fact, the dictatorial regime continued in Cambodia for a long time after that, but even the state of mind of the leader is subtle, and I think that is why it is important to engage in dialogue with a spirit of fraternity.
I hope that the discussion will be meaningful.
Thank you for your attention.
Possible Election in Myanmar 2025
（SUTO‘ｓawareness of the problem）
Nobuhiko SUTO
Director, KYOWA Research Center
1. Military Chief Min Aung Hlaing extended the state of Emergency by 6 months
2. He has already declared in June that he will conduct the election in 2025 after confirming the result of resident survey in October this year.
3. To prepare valid and accurate ballots, he extended the State of Emergency for additional Six months, i.e. he is determined to realize the election next year.
4. They have already conducted a survey of national census on October 2023 ,
choosing 20 townships nation-wide.
They are said to be introducing electronic voting machine with the assistance of Russia
All indicates his determination for conducting the election in 2024
5. Regarding the general environment for conducting the election is not clear. There were massive aggression from the ethnic militant groups plus PDF and we have seen a number of reports that Official military Junta has surrendered in peripheral regions, although almost all reports and TV news come from Western Media.
6. We are not sure the reality of the internal conflict since we do not have any credible firsthand information nor cognitive analysis regarding the situation of nation-wide conflicts and the balance of Military Junta and the ethnic rebels.
However, Military Government governs the core of the nation and important cities, and they can operate an election if they really want to do.
7. Regarding the political parties, LND is resolved but there is a chance of recovery before the election and other parties are preparing for the coming election next year.
8. We should participate in election process. Absence is the last resort and should be avoided.
9. Recent election in Venezuela, Maduro a strongman President won by dubious election. A few countries sent observers and some NGOs including Carter Center which has a long experience and expertise in this field, and their finding and reports will be very important for judging the reality and to give a peer pressure for the Government to improve the situation of democracy in Venezuela.
10. This can be a model for Myanmar. We should not step aside and watch the election as an outsider.
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